A Dynamic analysis of Health care supply and demand management: A Case Study Hospitals of Social Security Organization

Background: The outlook for hospital care is changing rapidly. Supply and demand stimuli in the health service system are changing dramatically. The health department of the Social Security Administration has also been challenged by the growing number of patients. This study was conducted to help this organization with the aim of designing a conceptual causal model of the interaction between supply and demand of health care. Materials and Methods: This research is a qualitative study that was conducted in 2020. It presented a conceptual model in two steps in the first step, semi-structured interviews were used to extract important factors in the supply and demand of health services in hospitals. In the second step, the system simulation approach was used and the feedback relationships between the patient's routes to the hospital and the provision of medical services were presented. Results: According to the study hypothesis, the prevalence of disease and budget allocation as an indicator of medical need and expected medical demand, positively affect the number of visits to hospitals of the Social Security Organization. Accordingly, four sub-models of patient flow, health care budget, treatment staff (physician, nurse) and hospital capacity were extracted. Conclusion: Medical budgets allocated to hospitals to improve medical facilities and increase the number of staff, have created positive expectations among social security insured regarding the use of hospital services. Paying attention to providing sufficient manpower (doctor, nurse) and bed capacity with the budget which is spent for this service are the indicators of improving the quality of services.