زمین لغزش برای دو سناریوی عادی و بحرانی در آبخیز چهل چای، استان گلستان

     In this study, management plan was developed for normal and critical scenarios in the Chehel-Chai watershed. Landslide distribution map of the study area was created using air photos interoperation and field studies. Landslide management plan also was suggested for five management strategies: without management program, low-risk tolerance, zero risk tolerance, avoiding of risk and controlling measures. The management plan was developed for both normal and critical scenarios. Additionally, multi-criteria evaluation was used to calculate the management score. Results show that in the two normal and critical scenarios, 6.67% and 11.8% of the Chehel-chai watershed need controlling measures, respectively. In contrast, 37% and 12.57% of the study area are identified as the areas that do not need any intervention (without management program), with respect to the two scenarios respectively. The kappa index of agreement for the management plan maps corresponding to both scenarios was calculated as 0.64 suggesting that there is 36% difference between the two management plan scenario maps. The implementation of the landslide management plans based on this research in local and regional scales can solve the problems arising from hill slope instability. This can lead to appropriate watershed management practices and therefore to achieve sustainable development.