A ug 2 00 5 Estimation of a Covariance Matrix with Zeros ∗

We consider estimation of the covariance matrix of a multivariate random vector under the constraint that certain covariances are zero. We first present an algorithm, which we call Iterative Conditional Fitting, for computing the maximum likelihood estimator of the constrained covariance matrix, under the assumption of multivariate normality. In contrast to previous approaches, this algorithm has guaranteed convergence properties. Dropping the assumption of multivariate normality, we show how to estimate the covariance matrix in an empirical likelihood approach. These approaches are then compared via simulation and on an example of gene expression. Some key words: Covariance graphs; Empirical likelihood; Graphical models; Marginal independence; Maximum likelihood estimation; Multivariate normal distribution