Making Decisions on the Release of Gm Crops

Much political opportunism, heated rhetoric, and protection of vested interests surround the debate over genetically modified (GM) crops, with extreme claims occurring on all sides. While many of the issues can be addressed by detailed and specific scientific studies, such as those used to assess GM crops for food safety, the ecological implications of release of transgenic crops may be more difficult to assess because knowledge is needed on how the ecological system is likely to evolve in both time and space. Currently the only way to study systems in ‘compressed time’ is by the use of mathematical risk assessment models. In the case of GM crops, mathematical models in which the assumptions and dependencies are explicit can augment expert opinion by better informing decision makers about the risks of gene flow.