Modelling football match results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting
نویسندگان
چکیده
An ordered probit regression model estimated using 15 years’ data is used to model English league football match results. As well as past match results data, the significance of the match for end-ofseason league outcomes; the involvement of the teams in cup competition; the geographical distance between the two teams’ home towns; and the average attendances of the two teams all contribute to the model’s performance. The model is used to test the weak-form efficiency of prices in the fixedodds betting market, and betting strategies with a positive expected return are identified.
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تاریخ انتشار 2003