Peak oil and the low-carbon energy transition: A net-energy perspective

Since the Pennsylvania oil rush of 1859, petroleum has quickly become dominant fuel industrial society. The “Peak Oil” debate focused on whether or not there was an impending production crunch cheap oil, and whilst have been no shortages across globe, a shift from conventional to unconventional liquids occurred. One aspect this fully explored in previous discussions–although some importance low-carbon energy transition context: extent which net-energy supply products is affected by use lower quality sources. To fill gap, paper incorporates standard EROI (energy-return-on-investment) estimates dynamic decline functions GlobalShift all-liquids bottom-up model global scale. We determine necessary for (including direct indirect costs) represent today 15.5% liquids, growing at exponential rate: 2050, proportion equivalent half gross output will be engulfed its own production. Our findings thus question feasibility fast transition. therefore suggest urgent return peak debate, but including issues avoiding narrow focus ‘peak supply’ vs demand’.