Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts.
Regime shifts from one ecological state to another are often portrayed as sudden, dramatic, and difficult to reverse. Yet many regime shifts unfold slowly and imperceptibly after a tipping point has been exceeded, especially at regional and global scales. These long, smooth transitions between equilibrium states are easy to miss, ignore, or deny, confounding management and governance. However, ...
متن کاملStochastic modeling of regime shifts
Probabilistic methods for modeling the distribution of regimes and their shifts over time are developed by drawing on statistical decision and limit theory of random sums. Multi-annual episodes of opposite sign are graphically and numerically represented by their duration, magnitude, and intensity. Duration is defined as the number of consecutive years above or below a reference line, magnitude...
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A standard capital asset pricing model is extended to allow for stochastic shifts in the volatility of the news process. This model is then estimated on bivariate stock market data to separate two exogenous news processes – a world and a domestic. The results indicate that the influence of the world news process on the Swedish stock market has increased significantly over the period 1970-1995. ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Trends in Ecology & Evolution
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0169-5347
DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2012.08.022