Determining Statistically Robust Changes in Ungulate Browsing Pressure as a Basis for Adaptive Wildlife Management

Ungulate browsing has a major impact on the composition and structure of forests. Repeatedly conducted, large-scale regeneration inventories can monitor extent pressure its impacts forest development. Based respective results, necessity wildlife management activities such as hunting, fencing, etc., be identified at landscape scale. However, have rarely been integrated into decision making. In this article, we evaluate inventory method which was carried out in Bavarian Forest National Park between 2007 2018. We predict by calculating probabilities using logistic mixed effect model. To provide managers with feedback their activities, developed test assess significant changes probability different periods. find minimum observable change, simulated ungulate based data potential indicator species (Sorbus aucuparia) Park. Sorbus aucuparia is evenly distributed, commonly found, selectively browsed meets ecosystem development objectives our study area. were able to verify change down ±5 percentage points sample size about 1,000 observations per run. view annual fluctuations pressure, estimation accuracy seems sufficient. seeking maximal cost-efficiency, reduce sensitivity analysis two thirds without severe loss information for management. findings, presented combined evaluation tool robust efficient instrument herbivores that are other regions.