Crew performance variability in human error probability quantification: A methodology based on behavioral patterns from simulator data

Current Human Reliability Analysis models express error probabilities as a function of task types and operational context, without explicitly modelling the influence different crew behavioral characteristics on probability. The such variability is treated only implicitly, by uncertainty distributions with bounds primarily obtained expert judgment. This paper presents methodology to empirically incorporate performance in probability quantification, from simulator data. Crew behaviors are represented set “behavioral patterns” that emerge observation operating crews (e.g. information sharing or adhering procedural guidance). demonstrates use Bayesian hierarchical model capture emerging applied case study literature. Numerical demonstrations performed order compare proposed approach existing quantification used HRA for treating