Conditional probability of distributed surface rupturing during normal-faulting earthquakes

Abstract. Coseismic surface faulting is a significant source of hazard for critical plants and distributive infrastructure; it may occur either on the principal fault or as distributed rupture nearby faults. Hazard assessment based empirical relations which, in case normal faults, were derived almost 15 years ago using dataset US earthquakes. We collected additional histories worldwide, total 21 earthquakes, calculated conditional probability function distance from fault. found no clear dependency magnitude nor time occurrence but our data consistently show higher when compared with scaling currently adopted engineering practice. derive updated regressions that results are strongly conditioned by averaging earthquakes effectively generating at given those which did not generate faulting; thus, we introduce more conservative scenario can be included logic tree approach to consider full spectrum potential ruptures. Our applied framework probabilistic displacement hazard.