Chain-Ladder as Maximum Likelihood Revisited
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Chain-Ladder as Maximum Likelihood Revisited
It has long been known that maximum likelihood estimation in a Poisson model reproduces the chain-ladder technique. We revisit this model. A new canonical parametrisation is proposed to circumvent the inherent identification problem in the parametrisation. The maximum likelihood estimators for the canonical parameter are simple, interpretable and easy to derive. The boundary problem where all o...
متن کاملMarkov Chain Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood
Markov chain Monte Carlo (e. g., the Metropolis algorithm and Gibbs sampler) is a general tool for simulation of complex stochastic processes useful in many types of statistical inference. The basics of Markov chain Monte Carlo are reviewed, including choice of algorithms and variance estimation, and some new methods are introduced. The use of Markov chain Monte Carlo for maximum likelihood est...
متن کاملCommon Voting Rules as Maximum Likelihood Estimators
Voting is a very general method of preference aggregation. A voting rule takes as input every voter’s vote (typically, a ranking of the alternatives), and produces as output either just the winning alternative or a ranking of the alternatives. One potential view of voting is the following. There exists a “correct” outcome (winner/ranking), and each voter’s vote corresponds to a noisy perception...
متن کاملThe Geometric Chain - Ladder
The log normal reserving model is considered. The contribution of the paper is to derive explicit expressions for the maximum likelihood estimators. These are expressed in terms of development factors which are geometric averages. The distribution of the estimators is derived. It is shown that the analysis is invariant to traditional measures for exposure.
متن کاملMaximum Likelihood
In this paper we discuss maximum likelihood estimation when some observations are missing in mixed graphical interaction models assuming a conditional Gaussian distribution as introduced by Lauritzen & Wermuth (1989). For the saturated case ML estimation with missing values via the EM algorithm has been proposed by Little & Schluchter (1985). We expand their results to the special restrictions ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Annals of Actuarial Science
سال: 2009
ISSN: 1748-4995,1748-5002
DOI: 10.1017/s1748499500000610