Allocating Undecided Voters in Pre-election Polling
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Lies, Damn Lies, and Pre–Election Polling
In this paper we ask the question: how well do pre–election polls forecast the actual results of elections in the U.S.? 1 The question is interesting for a number of reasons. First, even polling data suggests about 1/3 of polling respondents do not believe that polls work in " the best interests of the general public. " 2 The situation is such that even many national governments have undertaken...
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Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, e...
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The second significant digits of precinct-level (or polling station-level) vote counts follow regular patterns when voters are acting strategically and when there are partisan imbalances of voters in districts (when there is a gerrymander). The digits often follow distinctive patterns when vote counts are affected by coercion. The patterns are illustrated by a simulation exercise that generates...
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Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they d...
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PURPOSE In the 2008 presidential election, a majority of older persons voted for John McCain, the loser. The purposes of this report are to help illuminate why older voters were the only age-group that gave a majority to McCain and to delineate some ongoing issues in the analysis of older persons' voting behavior. METHODS Analysis was undertaken by mining raw data from the 2008 Edison-Mitofsk...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Tripodos
سال: 2020
ISSN: 2340-5007,1138-3305
DOI: 10.51698/tripodos.2020.i48p69-84