A framework to assess future water-resource under climate change in northern Morocco using hydro-climatic modelling and water-withdrawal scenarios

The Bas-Loukkos catchment, a Mediterranean catchment in northern Morocco exposed to growing water withdrawal caused mainly by agricultural development. For adaptation climate change, managers have consider the high and various uncertainties. To assess impacts of change on projected resources, this study aimed develop smart analysis framework provide scientific information exploring complexity many projections combined with hydrological models. Uncertainties were quantified using 13 pair-wise combinations 5 regional models forced 4 global under two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 RCP8.5), data without bias correction (using empirical quantile mapping), sets GR2M model parameters corresponding different precipitation conditions. Budyko hypothesis was used analyse effects resources according water-withdrawal scenarios. Climate been analyzed over three periods: short-term [2020–2040], medium-term [2041–2060] long-term [2081–2100]. Results from all simulations indicate that, long term (2081–2100), discharge will decrease ca. 21–38% 50–71%, respectively, compared reference period (1981–2005). Consequently, decline require management strategies adapt future climatic conditions demand.